The Four Factors and why they predict winners

Analyst Dean Oliver showed that four things explain most of who wins a basketball game. They are still the cleanest framework for reading a matchup.

The four factors, in order of weight

1. Shooting (eFG%) — by far the biggest. Putting the ball in the basket efficiently wins more games than anything else.
2. Turnovers (turnover rate) — possessions lost per chance. Every turnover is a possession with zero points.
3. Rebounding (offensive rebound rate) — the share of your misses you grab back, creating extra chances.
4. Free throws (free-throw rate) — how often you get to the line and convert.

Why they predict so well

Each factor is measured per possession, so they work regardless of pace, and each one is a lever a team can actually pull. Win three of the four and you almost always win the game.

Both sides count

You have an offensive and a defensive version of each factor — shooting well matters as much as forcing your opponent to shoot badly.

For predictions, the Four Factors turn a messy box score into four comparable questions. When a model favors one team, it usually traces back to a clear edge in one or more of these — most often shooting.