Efficiency stats: TS%, eFG%, ratings and pace

Raw percentages treat every shot the same. Advanced efficiency stats fix that by accounting for how much each shot is worth and how many possessions a team uses.

Effective field-goal percentage (eFG%)

A made three is worth 50% more than a two, so eFG% gives extra credit for threes. A team shooting lots of threes can have a higher eFG% than FG% — a fairer measure of scoring from the floor.

True shooting percentage (TS%)

TS% goes one step further and folds in free throws too, so it captures all scoring per shooting possession. It is the single best one-number shooting gauge; elite is roughly 60%+.

Offensive and defensive rating

• Offensive rating — points scored per 100 possessions.
• Defensive rating — points allowed per 100 possessions.

Using per 100 possessions strips out tempo, so a fast team and a slow team can be compared fairly.

Pace

Pace is possessions per game. High pace means more scoring chances for both sides, so it lifts totals without telling you who is better.

For predictions this is the core insight: separate how efficient a team is (ratings) from how fast it plays (pace). Confusing the two is the most common mistake in reading a matchup.