Managing your bankroll
Staking methods: flat, percentage and Kelly
5 min
Once you have a unit, you need a rule for how many units to put on each bet. The rule matters more than most beginners think — a great picker with a reckless staking plan can still go broke.
Flat staking
The simplest and safest approach: bet the same amount every time, usually 1 unit. You never chase, never overreact, and your results reflect your picks rather than your bet-sizing. For almost everyone starting out, flat staking is the right answer.
Percentage staking
Here each stake is a fixed percentage of the current bankroll rather than a fixed amount. When you're winning the stakes grow; when you're losing they shrink, which cushions a bad run. The trade-off is more bookkeeping and slower recovery after a drawdown.
A word on Kelly
The Kelly criterion is a formula that sizes your bet according to your edge and the odds — the bigger your perceived advantage, the more you stake. Intuitively: bet more when you're confident and the price is generous, less when you're not.
- It is mathematically elegant and, in theory, growth-optimal.
- It is also very aggressive and unforgiving if your edge estimate is wrong (and estimating your true edge is hard).
Most disciplined bettors who use Kelly use fractional Kelly — a quarter or a half of what the formula suggests — precisely to tame its swings. If in doubt, stick to flat staking.